Analyzing SWS and PNoy’s GPS

The SWS

Social Weather Stations is considered the most credible and reliable pollster in the Philippines.  Politicians and Philippine Business have relied on SWS’s technical capabilities in determining the political and economic public pulse for some time.

No wonder that when it publishes its latest surveys, more particularly the approval/satisfaction ratings of government officials, the press and a number of movers and shakers react.

SWS terminology for Net Satisfaction Ratings: +70 and above, "excellent"; +50 to +69, "very good"; +30 to +49, "good"; +10 to +29, "moderate", +9 to -9, "neutral"; -10 to -29, "poor"; -30 to -49, "bad"; -50 to -69, "very bad"; -70 and below, "execrable".

The Net Public Satisfaction with President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III in the 3^rd Quarter of 2013 is +49, down from the previous quarter’s +64.  The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3% and +/-6% for national and regional, respectively.  The SWS terminology based on the ratings numbers is that PNoy’s net satisfaction rating is GOOD compared to VERY GOOD previously.

 

A deeper look at the numbers would show that +49 is in the border of GOOD and VERY GOOD – only 1% point difference.  Considering the margin of error mentioned, it could very well be termed VERY GOOD.

Of course, some members of the press, PNoy’s critics, and the naysayers focused on the result that it was down.  The fact that PNoy’s net satisfaction rating is GOOD/VERY GOOD borderline is, for them, BAD.

Yet, a careful analysis of the survey results would also show that while PNoy’s Net Satisfaction rating in Metro Manila is only GOOD, the balance of the entire Luzon stayed VERY GOOD.

In the South, while his net rating is GOOD in the Visayas, his rating in Mindanao remains VERY GOOD.

Among economic classes, ABC and D still rate him VERY GOOD while the E class rate him GOOD.

In the rural areas, the people rate PNoy VERY GOOD; while in the urban areas, they rate him GOOD.

Among women, PNoy is VERY GOOD.  Among men, PNoy is GOOD.

In short, contrary to what some press people report and what the naysayers claim, there is nothing in the latest SWS survey that would make anybody conclude that PNoy is BAD by any standard.  This is regardless of wherever they are, rich, middle class, or poor, and whatever their sex.

Historical Comparisons

Unsatisfied with the current perspective, I decided to also look at the Net Satisfaction Ratings of previous Presidents during a similar period in their respective tenures.

If you are a GMA fan, friend and/or follower, you should be reminded that she obtained a Net Satisfaction Rating of -6 during the 3^rd Quarter of her 4^th Year term (2004), which was down from +26 in the previous one.  That’s down by 32 percentage points.  In fact, in the 3^rd Quarter of her last year (2009) in office, her rating of -38 came down from -31 in the previous quarter.

If you are an ERAP fan, friend, and/or follower, you should also remember that his Net Satisfaction Rating during a comparative period prior to his ouster was only +19.  That’s 30 points below that of PNoy’s +49.

During a similar period, Presidents Cory Aquino and Fidel Ramos had Net Satisfaction Ratings of  +29 and +19 respectively.  

For their entire Presidential terms, the average Net Satisfaction Ratings of each President were the following:

CORY AQUINO:                    +35.06  (GOOD)

FIDEL RAMOS:                     +37.96  (GOOD)

ERAP ESTRADA:                 +29.47  (MODERATE)

GLORIA M. ARROYO:          - 5.9    (POOR)

PNoy:                                      +55.38  (VERY GOOD)

I wrote about this in my other column, “Take It From Barber” on this paper in the same issue. The Filipino people clamored for PNoy to become President because they saw in him – Hope, Honesty- Humility, and Honor.

Based on the numbers, the people showed and continue to show their satisfaction of his performance.  As I explained, PNoy is following a GPS that I call Grand Prosecution of the Sleazy.

As he and his team pursue this route, we now have, in this period of our history, a President who is sincere and serious in eradicating both the culture of corruption and culture of impunity.  We see in him a determination to cleanse the government of corrupt officials as he institutes socio-political and economic reforms.

Time and human limitations may prevent him from accomplishing his goals fully, expectedly.  We should all support him in sticking to his GPS, and not get distracted by his critics’ devious desire for him to deviate from his Grand Prosecution of the Sleazy.