I am sharing with our readers this article on Ray Kurzweil, my favorite
inventor, engineer, technologist, and futurist. He is in my Google + Circle. He
has some very interesting predictions.
image:
http://cdn.inquisitr.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Ray-665x385.jpg
Ray
Kurzweil has received 20 honorary doctorates, has been awarded honors
from three presidents of the United States
and has written 7 books (5 of which were national bestsellers). Ray is the
principal inventor of technologies ranging from the CCD flatbed scanner to the
first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind. Kurzweil is the chancellor
and co-founder of Singularity University, and the man chosen by Google to
direct their artificial intelligence development.
Ray
Kurzweil is the guy that Bill Gates calls “the best person I know at predicting
the future of artificial intelligence.”
There’s
no question that Kurzweil is a bright guy, but what he’s also really, really
good at is predicting the future when it comes to technology. Let’s take a look
at some of the predictions Ray has made
in the past.
In
1990, Kurzweil predicted that a computer would defeat a world chess champion by
1998. (In 1997, IBM’s Deep Blue defeated chess champion Garry Kasparov.) In
1990, he predicted that PC’s would be capable of answering queries by accessing
information wirelessly via the internet by 2010. He predicted that by the early
2000’s, exoskeletal limbs would allow the disabled to walk. (Ekso Bionics and
other companies have technology that does that and more).
In
1999, Ray predicted that people would be able to talk to their computers to
give commands by 2009. Although they were still in their infancy in 2009,
natural language interfaces like Google Now and Apple’s Siri were and are on
the rise.
In
2005, Kurzweil predicted that by the 2010’s, virtual solutions would be able to
perform real-time language translation. Words spoken in a foreign language
would be translated into text that would appear as a subtitle to users wearing
special glasses. Microsoft (using Skype Translate) and Google (using Translate)
have made this happen. One app called Word Lens actually uses your camera to
find and translate text imagery in real-time.
Okay,
so Ray Kurzweil has a pretty good track record. So now onto the good stuff.
What’s coming at us in the next 25 years according to Ray?
Ray
says that by the late 2010’s, glasses will beam images directly onto the
retina, and ten terabytes of computer power (that’s roughly the same amount as
the human brain) will cost about a grand.
By
the 2020’s, most diseases will go away as nanobots become smarter than current
medical technology. It will become possible for “normal eating” to be replaced
by nanosystems. The Turing test (a test in which artificial intelligence
becomes indistinguishable from human intelligence) begins to be passable.
Self-driving cars will start to take over the nation’s roads, and people won’t
be allowed to drive on highways.
Kurzweil
says that by the 2030’s, virtual reality will begin to feel 100% real, and we
will be able to upload our mind and/or consciousness before 2040.
In
the 2040’s, Ray says that non-biological intelligence will be a billion times
more capable than biological intelligence. He also says that Nanotech foglets
will be able to make food out of thin air and create any object in the physical
world at a whim.
Ray
predicts that by 2045, humans will multiply their intelligence a billion fold
by linking wirelessly from their neocortex’ to a synthetic neocortex in the
cloud.
No comments:
Post a Comment