Technology in a Democracy

Ours is a democratic and republican State. Although known as a government of the people, by the people, and for the people we, in fact, directly vote for our President, our Senators and Representatives.

There are some limitations with respect to this right of suffrage such as voter qualifications, registration, and exercising it within a designated period and times.

In Presidential elections, the Electoral College System is used where each State is allocated a number of electoral votes based on population.

While the popular votes are counted, the electoral votes are what really count. Since we follow the winner takes all system, the electoral votes go to the winner in the popular voting in a given State.

In many democratic countries, it usually takes days if not weeks to find out the results of Presidential elections.

In yesterday’s elections, America and the world found out the results as projected by the networks as early as 11:12 p.m. (EST), which is only 12 minutes after the closing of the polls in California and other Western States.

In fact, I wrote in my Facebook status update at 11:03 p.m. election night:

“At 11:03 p.m. 11/6/12: I now project that President Obama wins reelection!”

Then I followed it up later with another Facebook update:

“There is beauty in Mathematics or as former President Bill Clinton said Arithmetic. Since childhood, I was exposed to the value of MDAS - Multiplication, Division, Addition, Subtraction (My Dear Aunt Sally) by my late father; my late Uncle Venancio Maynigo (Mathematics professor); and my late first cousin Jesus Maynigo Casanova and his late wife Luz (both my Arithmetic teachers).

From them I learned to love and appreciate reading, analyzing and interpreting numbers. I also loved hearing stories as told by the numbers. Last night, as I analyzed the numbers reported by CNN's John King, NBC's Chuck Todd, and other sources, I was tempted to project Obama's victory at 10:13 p.m. but resisted it. I thought that I should at least wait for the closing of the polls at the most populous State of California (55 electoral votes). 

In a status update here on Facebook, I am very proud to have projected Obama's re-election at 11:03 p.m. last night. NBC News projected the same at 11:12 p.m. - the first among all networks. 

We've got the numbers! We knew how to count. Wasn't that nice?”

I also reported how the minorities voted in the 2012 Presidential elections, which was as follows:

Blacks - 93% for Obama; Latino - 71% for Obama; and Asians - 73% for Obama.

Filipinos were counted mostly as Asians; but some could have been easily identified as Latino by their last names and culture; and also some as Blacks by inter-marriage or even by color of skin (tall, DARK, and handsome). :):)

Filipinos can claim victory and credit in so many ways. Isn't that neat?

The numbers really tell good stories. But what makes this really more amazing and exciting is the technology that brought about the numbers and the democratic election stories.

Indeed, the role of digital technology in the democratic processes in the recently held Presidential elections cannot be underestimated and should be greatly appreciated.

Computers were everywhere in the voter registration process. Digital broadcasting and news reporting, blogging, social media through Twitter and Facebook and other forms of cyber communications kept the public informed and updated.

In my last Facebook update on the Presidential elections prior to this column I wrote:

“I did not sleep until I heard Romney's concession and Obama's victory speeches. Listening to both, I went to sleep full of hope. Romney conceded with so much grace in defeat offering prayers for bipartisanship, cooperation and less bickering in solving the country's economic, social and political problems.

Romney fought a great fight! Together with his wife, Anne, his family, campaign staff, and the Republican base, they ran an efficient, effective, and competent campaign. Although his campaign fell short, he obtained more popular votes than Reagan in 1980 and 1984; more than Bush I (G.H.W.) in 1988; more than Clinton in 1992 and 1996; and more than Bush II (G.W) in 2000. Romney should be proud of such a stunning achievement. Under different circumstances, he could have been President. Fate did not allow it but his Faith and his God must have destined a different role for him.

President Obama plans to sit down with him to discuss what they could do together. Following the Lincoln example, Obama reached out to his political enemies. He did it to Hillary Clinton (and Bill) and to Robert Gates (Defense). I have no doubt that he will reach out and work with Romney.”

Cyber and Information Technology provided me almost instant data regarding the popular votes obtained by Presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush.

RONALD REAGAN:        1980 – 43,903,230; 1984 – 54,455,472

GEORGE H.W. BUSH:      1988 – 48,886,097

BILL CLINTON:              1992 – 44,909,806; 1996 – 47,401,185

GEORGE W. BUSH:          2000 – 50,456,002

The popular votes obtained by Romney as of this writing with some still to come was 56,145,950.

Deadly, Damaging, and Disruptive Disaster under a Digital Democracy

SANDY, the Super storm was coming. As an “Act of God,” it was supposed to be a fortuitous event: unforeseen, unexpected, and unavoidable. All we could do was mitigate or minimize its devastating effects.

When I predicted an October Surprise in this presidential election, I thought that it would come from either the Romney or the Obama camp. I did not realize that GOD the Almighty would provide it.

Fortunately, the Scientific Geniuses in the Weather Bureau, with the help of digital and information technologies, somehow were able to forecast the route, direction, and arrival of SANDY in certain States, including Virginia, where I live. To a certain extent, SANDY suddenly became foreseeable, expected, and avoidable.

In my initial Facebook status update, I wrote that I was all prepared and ready for my date with SANDY. “I just got back from the supermarket. We are getting ready for SANDY here in Virginia. All charged-up: extra batteries, MacBook, iPad, IPhone, Android, iPod, etc., all with flashlight apps, candles, matches, flashlights, cold food, bottled and filtered water, boiled water inside the big thermos, snacks, radio, audio, and video players on battery, etc. I am and will be at home without my spouse, who is abroad. Embraced by SANDY is not desirable and unwelcome! :):)”

 

As expected, for two days, SANDY not only aggressively threw cold and wet embraces and stormy kisses, she rendered us POWERLESS.

 

On the first night without power, while lying down on my bed seemingly naked, helpless, and alone, I could not help retracing how early inhabitants on earth responded to this brazen nakedness with the G-Strings.

 

Yes, POWERLESS as we were, I thought that we have been EMPOWERED likewise by a String of Gs: GOD, Government, Global Network, General Electric, Gas-operated equipment, Generator, Gadgets (Smart Phones, Tablets, etc.), Genius Bar (Apple), Gates (Microsoft), Google, Giant (Groceries), Greens, Guava and Grapes, Good Shepherd, Good Guys, Gals and Gays, Gifted Scientists, Games, Gossips or Grape Vine, Gimmicks, Gallup Polls, and Grassroots Ground Games. In the Philippines, for some politicians their brand of power consisted of Gold, Guns, Goons, and Girls.

GOD helps those who help themselves. The disaster proved to be deadly, with more than two dozen deaths so far; damages amounting to more than $50 billion; disruptions to business activities, Wall Street, sports and entertainment, political campaigns, and normal daily routine.

The roles of man-made institutions like the Federal and local governments, NGOs like the Red Cross as well as those of the human inventions that deal with the likes of SANDY such as the Gs mentioned above, became more significant and demonstrative of how human beings help themselves.

SANDY must have disrupted his Presidential campaign, but as the Washington Post reported, the former has been given his Commander-in-Chief moment.

“In a campaign notable mostly for its negativity, the historic storm provided Obama with a commander-in-chief moment a week before Election Day. The president gained a rare moment of bipartisan praise, with Democratic and Republican governors alike commending the performance of the federal government.”

Previously, bombing the enemy was the October Surprise. GOD instead surprised everyone by giving SANDY as a tribulation and a trial for both Obama and Romney to face.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has been very helpful, competent, efficient, and effective in working with the States and Cities in these trying times. Unfortunately for Romney, the media is reminding the electorate that he had proposed earlier the abolition of the agency.

Making it worse for Romney, the following report was all over the mainstream media:

“Gov. Chris Christie (R), generally a harsh critic of President Obama, has nothing but praise for the White House response to Hurricane Sandy. 

“The federal government’s response has been great. I was on the phone at midnight again last night with the President, personally, he has expedited the designation of New Jersey as a major disaster area,” Christie, a top surrogate for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, said on NBC’s “Today.”

He added, “The President has been outstanding in this and so have the folks at FEMA.” 

On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Christie was equally laudatory, saying, “the President has been all over this and he deserves great credit.” Obama, he said, “told me to call him if I needed anything and he absolutely means it, and it’s been very good working with the President and his administration.”

And on Fox News’ “Fox and Friends,” when asked if Romney would visit New Jersey, Christie replied, “I have a job to do. If you think right now I give a damn about presidential politics, then you don’t know me.”

Meanwhile, my State of Virginia continues to be a Swing State, as I see the strong winds blowing and the tree branches SWINGING sometimes to the Left, sometimes to the Center, and sometimes to the Right.

COMBATING CYBER CRIMINALS

Over 10 years ago, a virus named “I love you” penetrated the web networks. It allegedly affected thousands if not millions of computers worldwide. After a few days, it was determined that a Filipino computer specialist operating out of the Philippines caused it.

Many people including my barber were amazed even expressing pride that one Filipino could supposedly wreck havoc to the Worldwide Web.

I remember responding to my barber and to some of those expressing amazement that the concern should not be on the Filipino who spread the “I love you” virus but more on the fact that among all the millions of computers in the world, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and other international experts were able to identify the very exact computer that the Filipino used to spread the virus.

I just finished attending the Cyber Security Conference held in Washington, D.C. The attendees include IT specialists and Cyber Security experts from the U.S. Government, guest governments, and private IT companies. I was one of the few credentialed members of the media permitted to cover the conference. The latter is also being held simultaneously with the Mobile Government Conference and the Cloud and Virtualization Conference.

In the conference, I had the chance to meet an expert connected with a firm that protects many of the networks of the Stock Exchanges and financial institutions in North America, Europe, and Asia from hackers and cyber criminals. In our conversation, he mentioned to me that one of their capabilities is in determining the source and identifying in “an instant” or almost real time the one overtly “hacking” or committing a cybercrime. Amazing indeed!

We exchanged business cards. I hope to know more about it later.

Lawrence C. Miller of PaloAlto Networks, network Security Company described the State of Today’s Intrusions. He says, “Today’s threats are more sophisticated and equal opportunity than ever before. All types of enterprises and information are being targeted” Many of the attacks are producing a steady stream of high profile sophisticated breaches and intrusions. He gave examples:

1.     Comodo (business partners). In March 2011, an intruder compromised a reseller’s network and stole nine digital security certificates that could then be fraudulently issued to impersonate various websites operated by Google, Microsoft, Skype and Yahoo;

2.     Sony PlayStation (credit card data). In April 2011, hackers breached the Sony PlayStation network, potentially stealing credit card and personal information (including names, birthdates, physical and e-mail addresses, pass-words, logins, handles, online IDs, purchase histories, and profile data) of more than 100 million subscribers;

3.     U.S. Senate (political hacktivism). In June 2011, LulzSec (a loosely organized hacker group) broke into the U.S. Senate website and posted a list of compromised – but not sensitive or classified – files online. Other examples of political hactivism by various hacker groups include attacks against the U.S. Public Broadcasting Service (PBS), Fox Broadcasting Company, and MasterCard, Visa, and PayPal websites in retaliation for negative coverage or adverse actions against WikiLeaks; and

4.     DigiNotar (Intellectual property). In September 2011, the same attacker that claimed responsibility for the Comodo breach took credit for a much larger compromise against Digitar that occurred during the summer of 2011. Again, a Certificate of Authority (CA) was the target and the attacker was able to generate hundreds of seemingly valid certificates for dozens of popular domains.

The above are just a few examples. According to Miller, Hackers have evolved from the prototypical “whiz kid” – sequestered in a basement, motivated by notoriety, and fueled by too much carbonated caffeine - into a bon fide cybercriminal, often motivated by significant financial gain, and sponsored by nation-states, criminal organizations, or radical groups.

Miller described that today’s hacker fits the following profile:

1.             Has far more resources available to facilitate an attack;

2.             Has greater technical depth and focus;

3.             Is well funded; and

4.             Is better organized.

I will be writing more about the Cyber Security Conference in subsequent columns. Let me spend more time digesting my notes and the materials that I have obtained at the conference.

I suspect that hackers and cyber criminals target many capitalist countries including the Philippines. A Cybercrime Prevention law was passed just recently. The problem is that Congress inserted anti-Freedom of Expression provisions like the labeling of Libel as an online crime with higher penalty as well as not providing sufficient conditions and safeguards. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court issued a TRO against its implementation for 120 days.

I wrote earlier that the Philippines participated in the development and formulation of the Convention on Cybercrime. In fact, I claimed that Congress virtually copied the provisions in the Convention on Cybercrime except the unacceptable insertions to come up with the Cybercrime Prevention Act.

My recommendation is for the PNoy Administration to sign (if not yet done) the Convention on Cybercrime and ask the Senate to ratify it immediately.

The Convention does not include Libel as a cybercrime. It provides sufficient safeguards including recognition and respect for International Human, Civil, and Political Rights laws.

Under our legal system, generally accepted principles of international agreements and customary law are part of the law of the land. (Art. II, Section 2, Constitution)

Following the doctrine enunciated In the Kuroda case, duly adopted international treaties can be invoked before and directly enforced by the courts and other tribunals and by the administrative authorities if they implicitly or explicitly establish rights and duties for private persons. “International law and treaties have the same domestic status as national legislation, and both international law and national legislation are subordinate to the Constitution.”

Furthermore, the Supreme Court has recognized the validity of "executive agreements" concluded and applied even without Senate approval. 

FILIPINOS CAN MAKE OR UNMAKE A U.S. PRESIDENT

My barber asked again what my take is re the Obama-Romney Presidential Battle.

With the help of online sources and cyber technology, this is my humble analysis. Because of the Electoral College System, we have to analyze the polls per State and correspondingly project what would be the results. Looking at the Electoral College Map projected by the conservative Rasmussen Report and the Real Clear Politics, which averages all the polls; I would say that the Electoral College Map would show the following results:

Obama: 257 Electoral Votes   Romney: 215 Electoral Votes    Swing: 66 Electoral Votes

The Swing States are:

1.         Florida:          29

2.         Ohio:              18

3.         Virginia:         13

4.         Nevada:           6

Total:                          66

To win the elections, one must have at least 270 Electoral Votes

ARITHMETIC:

ROMNEY

To win, Romney needs to obtain additional 55 Electoral Votes. To become President, he must win in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, which would give him a total of 60 additional votes – more than enough to cover the 55 needed. He cannot afford to lose in any of these 3 States. Winning in 2 and Nevada would not be sufficient.

OBAMA

To win, Obama needs to obtain additional 13 Electoral Votes. His is an easier path than Romney’s. All he needs is to win in Virginia, Ohio, or Florida. Winning Virginia would give him a total of 270, the magic number; Ohio a total of 275; and Florida, a total of 286.

Unless one unexpectedly falters in another State and Nevada is needed to cover it, at this point based on the above scenario, the latter is not as important to Obama or Romney as the other 3 States. This explains why Obama and Romney are spending much time, money, and efforts in these States.

Filipino Americans Can Make a Difference

The Filipinos are largely concentrated in the following States: 1. California; 2. Hawaii; 3. Illinois; 4. Washington; 5. New Jersey; 6. New York;  7. Texas; 8. Nevada; 9. Florida; 10. Virginia.

While the Filipinos are not as large in Ohio, in a close race, they can still make a difference especially if they unite with the other Asians as they have done in the past.

In the first 6 States mentioned above, Filipino Republicans or Pro-Romney Filipinos cannot make a difference. These States are so overwhelmingly Pro-Obama that Filipino Republicans cannot make a dent.

In the State of Texas, it is the opposite. Filipino Democrats or Pro-Obama Filipinos cannot make a difference. Texas is overwhelmingly Pro-Romney that Filipino Democratic votes would be useless.

Virginia, Florida, Nevada and Ohio are Swing States that Filipinos can really make a difference.

Every vote counts! Let me repeat. To be President, Romney must win in Virginia, Florida AND Ohio. To be President, Obama must win in Virginia, Florida, OR Ohio.

If Filipinos register and vote in these 3 States, indeed, they can either MAKE or UNMAKE a U.S. President!

E-Gen with “E” as in Electoral Reforms

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